Here is Professor Phillip's analysis of the current situation in Maccedonia: "Macedonia on the Brink." a contribution to the Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/macedonia-on-the-brink_us_58d91f06e4b0f633072b39d0
Macedonia on the Brink
Demonstrations
brought Macedonia to the brink when wiretaps of Prime Minister Nikola
Gruevski surfaced in 2015. The wiretaps revealed plots against political
opponents and sordid details about corruption.
The
European Union (EU) responded to the crisis, mediating the Przino
agreement. The agreement required participation of the opposition party,
the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) led by Zoran Zaev, in
ministries of the government. The agreement also required Gruevski to
step down and for a caretaker government to organize general elections.
The election scheduled for April 24 was postponed to June 5, and then postponed again to December 11.
Accountability
was also a lightning rod. The Przino agreement called for a special
prosecutor to investigate the wiretapping scandal. However, President
Gjeorge Ivanov issued pardons to figures in both parties effectively
undermining the special prosecutor. Popular demonstrations and
counter-demonstrations ensued.
Elections
were finally held in December 2016; Gruevski’s party won 51 of 120
seats in parliament. Since he did not gain an absolute majority, the
balance of power rests with parties representing ethnic Albanians, who
constitute at least 25 percent of Macedonia’s population.
Albanian
parties came together and adopted a common platform. Zaev agreed to
expand constitutional rights of Macedonia’s ethnic Albanians in exchange
for their support.
SDSM
assembled a parliamentary majority, which should have been enough to
form a government. However, Ivanov refused to award a mandate to SDSM
claiming that the consensus among Albanian parties was a foreign
construct, negotiated under the auspices of Albania’s Prime Minister.
Albanians refuted this claim, criticizing Ivanov. Zaev also accused
Ivanov of deliberately stalling the political process, helping Gruevski
cling to power.
Macedonia’s
crisis is acute. The longer it takes to resolve the impasse, the
greater the risk of political violence between supporters of Gruevski
and Zaev.
Macedonia
is also undermined by external powers. When the United States and the
EU criticized the government, Russia labeled the SDSM a tool of the
West. Russia is pursuing insidious goals to discredit Western influence.
Macedonia needs a conflict resolution plan, which can stabilize the country and mitigate the prospect of political violence.
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